Unfortunately, based on past weather data, “there is no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of the analysis,” according to a report released Friday by the National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, N.C.įlipping a coin might be as accurate as Phil. Since 1988, the groundhog was “right” 13 times and “wrong” 15 times. The Europeans originally used badgers or sometimes bears as their weather forecasters, as both animals hibernate and wake up when the days become longer and the sun’s angle becomes higher. The original custom never involved groundhogs. Groundhog Day Forecasts and Climate History iStock mirecca Every February 2, a crowd of thousands gathers at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to await a special forecast from a groundhog named Phil. It derives from the Pennsylvania Dutch superstition that if a groundhog emerging from its burrow on this day sees its shadow due to clear weather, it will retreat to its den and. At the time, the “unburrowing” ceremony was planned by members of Groundhog Lodges, meant for socializing with others and enjoying meals. Groundhog Day (Pennsylvania German: Grundsau dåk, Grundsaudaag, Grundsow Dawg, Murmeltiertag Nova Scotia: Daks Day) is a popular North American tradition observed in the United States and Canada on February 2. The tradition of Groundhog Day was brought over by German immigrants in the late 1800s. This year, the Groundhog Club has declared that Phil did not see his shadow and an early spring is in our forecast! But, if he doesn’t see his shadow, spring is on the way. If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Go Winter, and come not again.” A similar Scottish version goes, “If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there’ll be two winters in the year.If Phil sees his shadow and returns to his burrow, legend says we are in store for six more weeks of winter. There were also sayings in England that went something like,”If Candlemas be fair and bright, Come, Winter, have another flight. Or, perhaps the tradition might relate back to a Christian festival of medieval Europe where candles were lighted to celebrate the presentation of Jesus at the temple. As there are no hedgehogs here, early European settlers felt groundhogs were suitable substitutes. Where the idea of a groundhog (aka woodchuck, marmot) as predictor of winter’s end began is not entirely clear, but the Canadian groundhog may be a suitable substitute for an (or a mix of a few) older European traditions involving the hedgehog.įarmers would see hedgehogs emerging in February and take that as a sign that winter was ending. Here the crowd shown in the early dawn in 2018 waiting for daybreak and Willie’s prediction. Wiarton Willie’s tradition began in 1955 as a joke, but especially since the 1993 film, has grown like many others into a big celebration and a boost to the local economy.
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